Monte Carlo Simulation - How Many?

In this article:
1. Introduction to "Monte Carlo - How Мany"
    1.1. Data Configuration
2. How Does This Chart Work?
3. What Is That Telling Us?
    3.1. Simulation Control
4. Controls for This Chart - Customize Your View

You can find more information about the Analytics module in the dedicated article.

1. Introduction to the "Monte Carlo - How Мany" Simulation

The "How Many" Monte Carlo simulation aims to tell you the minimum amount of work items that you can get done within the next “x” days. For example, you can use it if you have a deadline scheduled for July 7th and you wish to know how many tasks can be finished by then.

The simulation will run a lot of trials based on your historical data/throughput. It can run up to 1 million trials to create a distribution. The chart will be able to tell you with a probability of 50%, 70%, 85%, and 90% how many work items you will be able to finish by a certain date.

The "Monte Carlo How Many" simulation consists of three charts:   

• Throughput basis (1) 
• Throughput Navigation (2) 
• Monte Carlo (3) 

The horizontal axis of the "Throughput Basis" (1) is a representation of time, while the vertical one shows the daily throughput. The high points of the charts represent the maximum throughput of any of the days in the chart, while the low points represent the minimum number of tasks that were completed. Hovering over the dots will give you summarized information about the number of tasks that have been completed that day. The line between the dots visualizes the rises and drops in your team's productivity. 

The Throughput Navigator (2) allows you to zoom in and out of a specific interval within the selected time frame. This way you can generate different Monte Carlo simulations without having to reset the general time frame every time.

The bottom chart, Monte Carlo (3), is a direct visualization of the results of the simulation in the form of a probabilistic distribution. The horizontal axis visualizes the total work items that will probably be completed within the selected future date. The vertical axis shows how many instances of a certain result occurred during the trials.

Data Configuration

Use the configuration menu to filter your data. You need to select at least one workflow (click on “OR” to add more workflows) and one of the following fields: Start Date, End Date, Created at. There are optional filters as well.

In addition, you can enable two more options:

• Ignore the cycle time configuration for the selected workflow(s) — if you checkmark it, the system will disregard the cycle time settings.
• Ignore the block time in the queue columns — if you checkmark it, the system will not account for the time cards were blocked in queue columns.

2. How Does This Chart Work?

 (1) Imagine you have a deadline on July 7th. You have to select the date from the respective "End date" calendar picker. 

(2) Activate the percentiles (Select all) to get the probabilistic view of the third chart. 

(3) Run the Trials (up to 1 million)

3. What Is That Telling Us?

The third chart will be able to tell you with a probability of 50%, 70%, 85%, and 90%, how many work items, you will be able to finish by the deadline. The simulation shows you that there is an 85% probability that by July 7th, you will finish 121 items. If you want to be more certain, go to the 95% percentile where the number of items is 103.

Practical Tip: 
You may doubt the results if your work items are different in size or if some of them are too complex.
That's why it is so important to keep your cycle time smaller. You have to do right-sizing and try finishing work within a certain period of time. If a task is too big, break it down into smaller pieces of work and flow it through the system. If you do this consistently, the forecast will be more accurate and your process much more predictable. 

Simulation Control

The How Many simulation charts allow for simulations to run for working days only - this option can be enabled via the Simulation Control options.

Let's assume we have card data for a full week (Monday-Sunday) and the data is as follows:

If the work days option is not selected, the simulation would be executed for the total number of completed cards for the full week, i.e. 3, 5, 2, 1, 3, 1.

If the work days option is selected (e.g. Monday-Friday), the simulation would be executed for the number of cards corresponding to the days on which they were completed, i.e. 3, 5, 2, 1, 3, and the one card completed on Sunday would not be taken into account.

Note: If the working days (Mon-Fri) are selected, the weekends would also be disregarded from the Begin-End date selections.

For example, if you set the Begin date to 01.01.2021 and the End date to 01.02.2021, the simulation would be executed based on items completed during the 21 working days of January 2021.

There would also be a 'Disqualified Items' section in the graph showing a list of work items that have been excluded from the simulations - in the above example, that would be the card that was completed on Sunday.

Use the Advanced search with its different chart views and widgets to get more precise cycle and log time data for internal reporting.

4. Controls for This Chart - Customize Your View

You can use the controls to change the Monte Carlo How Many simulation view and apply additional filters. Please, check the short video below. 

• Simulation Control - select the dates for which to run the simulation or alternatively, use a rolling day interval (e.g. next 5 days from the current date). If you anticipate changes that will most likely affect your daily throughput (e.g. an upcoming national holiday or new members joining the team), you can downscale or upscale the throughput to account for those changes. Allowed values are 0.1 - 10.
• Throughput Chart type - choose between a line or a bar chart.
• Percentiles - select or deselect percentiles to get the probabilistic view. 
• Layout - you can remove some of the charts and make only the simulation visible. Moreover, you can add a calendar that visualizes the start and end dates for your prediction. 
• Item Filter - apply additional filters to run the simulation for tasks that have a specific property (e.g. color, type, tags, etc.).